ビットコインは、中東での紛争が激化した場合、価格が下落する可能性がある――市場の動向

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1001 ET - Bitcoin faces additional downward pressure if the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, ActivTrades analyst Carolane De Palmas says in a note. "If tensions broaden significantly and trigger sustained volatility across global markets, investors are likely to intensify their flight-to-quality behavior." In that scenario, bitcoin could fall as investors reduce exposure to volatile assets to manage overall risk, she says. However, bitcoin could benefit if the conflict truly disrupts oil supply and pushes energy prices sharply higher, causing inflation expectations to rise and altering monetary policy expectations, she says. Some investors view bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and monetary policy changes. Bitcoin falls 3.3% to $67,070, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0955 ET - Precious metal futures are down as the U.S. dollar climbs. The USD index is up 0.9%, while gold falls 3.1% and silver plummets 7.6%. For silver, the slide marks the potential impact of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. "We believe silver's sharp reversal yesterday and today reflect concerns that a prolonged war could tilt the global economy into negative growth, weighing on the metal's industrial demand," says Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities in a note. Cardillo speculates that the conflict won't last long, limiting the downside in silver and gold. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0949 ET - The aim of U.K. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves's spring statement was to demonstrate that a consistent policy eliminates the need for a secondary fiscal event, allowing the government to focus solely on the budget later in the year, says Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG U.K. "Today's cautious spring forecast leaves the heavy lifting to future decisions," she says in a note. Updated forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility retain a relatively optimistic stance on growth, seeing a rebound in growth in 2027 to 1.6%, well above most forecasters' predictions of 1.4%, Selfin says. Its assumptions for productivity and long-term growth potential are also relatively high, which opens the way for more forecast downgrades in the future, she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0935 ET - The U.K. spring statement had little impact on sterling or U.K. government bonds as the market's focus is on the Middle East conflict, Convera strategist George Vessey says in a note. The fiscal update was already expected to be low key and it was drowned out further by geopolitical tensions, he says. The accompanying forecasts are "already stale" due to the conflict. The U.K. faces higher inflation from rising energy prices, complicating the Bank of England's interest rate-cutting path and potentially putting renewed strain on the public finances, he says. Moves in sterling and gilts are global in nature rather than U.K.-driven. Ten-year gilt yields rise 16 basis points to 4.526%, according to Tradeweb. Sterling falls 0.7% to $1.3304. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0920 ET - Rising energy prices have dampened expectations for further U.K. interest-rate cuts and fuel speculation of a possible eurozone rate rise but this doesn't offer much support to sterling or the euro, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in note. The "fact that the U.K. and the eurozone are energy importers is likely a more pressing concern currently," she says. Sterling and the euro are unlikely to perform well given uncertainty over the potential damage to their economies from an inflation bout as the Middle East conflict pushes up energy prices, she says. Sterling falls 0.8% to $1.3299 after hitting a three-month low of $1.3259 earlier, according to LSEG. The euro falls 0.8% to $1.1598 after reaching a six-week low of $1.1579 earlier.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0912 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds stay high after U.K. Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves's presentation before lawmakers as the Middle East war overshadows the statement. The U.K. fiscal headroom improved to nearly 24 billion pounds ($32.2 billion) from around 22 billion pounds at the November budget. The good news is "unlikely to receive much recognition in the current environment," MUFG's Henry Cook says in a note. Inflation risks have risen due to surging energy prices as a result of the Middle East conflict, reducing rate-cut prospects, he says. Ten-year gilt yields are up 16 basis points to last trade at 4.526%, after hitting a three-week high of 4.552% earlier, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0910 ET - Net borrowing by European countries with developed economies will remain near 3% of GDP on average for 2026, largely to finance deficits, S&P Global Ratings says. That said, budgetary positions vary widely. Some countries, such as Ireland and Switzerland, are in a surplus position. Meanwhile, France's net borrowing will be near 5.3% of GDP, it says. It also forecasts developed European sovereigns' gross borrowing at 11.7% of GDP in 2026, below the peaks during the Covid-19 pandemic but over 1 percentage point of GDP higher than the 10-year average. The three largest euro area borrowers--France, Germany and Italy--now account for 52% of all developed-economy European debt, up from 48% in 2017, it says. "This follows Germany's embrace of fiscal stimulus and steadily rising debt in the euro area's second-largest economy, France." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0905 ET - The U.K. government has a bit more money to play with following the spring statement, but this could be offset by rising energy prices, says Paul Dales at Capital Economics in a note. Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves noted an uptick in fiscal headroom, likely due to lower gilt yields and higher equity prices, Dales says. But with events in the Middle East potentially raising U.K. inflation and weakening growth, there is a risk that this wiggle room could be wiped out. Tax hikes might be required at the next budget, but political pressure will likely keep government spending elevated in the near term. "The Chancellor may need to raise some money... But tax hikes for the third budget in a row could bring down the curtain on Starmer's premiership," Dales says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0854 ET - Treasury yields keep rising while the dollar strengthens as the conflict in the Middle East rages on. Rising energy prices stoke inflation fears and support bets on a longer hold on interest rates by the Fed. U.S. private-sector job creation in February's ADP report tomorrow is expected to increase to 48,000 from 22,000, in a WSJ consensus. The 10-year yield is at 4.102%, up from 4.051% yesterday. The two-year rises to 3.547% from 3.485%. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.6% as the greenback strengthens 0.8% against the euro and 0.2% versus the yen. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0854 ET - A new law to modernize the legal framework for connectivity in the European Union will make the bloc more competitive and independent, Henna Virkkunen, executive vice president of the European Commission and the EU's top tech official, says at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Europe remains too fragmented with different rules across borders that make it hard for companies to invest at scale, she says. The commission, the bloc's executive arm, is proposing the Digital Networks Act, but the law hasn't yet been passed. (mauro.orru@wsj.com )

0842 ET - Concerns about the inflationary consequences of the conflict in the Middle East are the key drivers of U.K. government bonds, or gilts, says Aberdeen's Matthew Amis in a note. This means U.K. Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves's spring statement on public finances and the gilt remit for fiscal 2027 have little influence on gilt yields, which remain higher on the day, he says. "The geo-politics and the surge higher in energy prices are the only game in town and Chancellor Reeves' spring statement will not be changing that," Amis says. The 10-year gilt yield is last up 16.9 basis points at 4.535%, lifted as sharp rises in energy prices stoke inflation worries. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0832 ET - Sterling shows little reaction after U.K. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves announced no further changes to fiscal policy in her spring statement. The focus was instead on updated economic and fiscal forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Real GDP growth is expected to slow this year to 1.1% before rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, and then 1.5% in both 2029 and 2030. Inflation is expected to fall to 2.3% this year and to the Bank of England's 2.0% target from 2027 onwards. However, the OBR noted "significant risks" around its forecasts due to the Middle East conflict. Sterling falls 0.7% to $1.3311 and the euro falls 0.1% to 0.8711 pounds, both little changed from levels before the statement. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260303005795:0/