トランプ氏のドル安志向と利下げへの期待が、通貨市場に影響を与えている。市場関係者の声

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0929 ET - President Trump's desire for a weaker dollar and lower interest rates are playing a part in holding back the currency, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. "Recent robust U.S. data have not had any positive impact on the dollar." Trump has repeatedly called for rate cuts regardless of the growth and inflation outlook, he says. The dollar could fall if the market becomes more optimistic there will be no further escalation in the Iran war, with the euro potentially rising to $1.20 in coming weeks, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1732. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0923 ET - The dollar turns higher after Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The news comes after President Trump said the U.S. would extend its cease-fire with Iran but maintain a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Senior Iranian adviser Mahdi Mohammadi said on X that Trump's cease-fire extension "means nothing." The dollar could see further volatility, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. Any sustained easing in tensions would encourage renewed selling of the dollar whereas any resumption of hostilities would likely trigger another round of safe haven demand, they say. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.472, having earlier traded lower. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0922 ET - If confirmed as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh will immediately face high expectations from the president who nominated him to deliver interest-rate cuts--perhaps challenging to justify with the Fed's targeted inflation rate running well above the 2% objective. In Senate testimony Tuesday, Warsh hinted at one way to make the case for cuts: He praised the "trimmed-mean" inflation metric. Trimmed-mean inflation takes the PCE inflation rate and strips out some of the product categories that rose or fell in price by the most in a given month. By excluding outliers, it aims to show a better picture of underlying inflation trends. Trimmed-mean inflation has been running at 2% annualized over the past 6 months, versus 3.4% for the traditional PCE price index. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

0905 ET - Demand for Treasurys bounces back a little, pushing yields down, as President Trump extends the cease-fire with Iran amid stalled peace talks. U.S. stock futures rise, but so do crude oil futures, with Brent approaching $100 a barrel. The WSJ Dollar Index is steady. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing goes without major surprises and markets keep betting on a prolonged hold on interest rates. The 10-year is at 4.274%, down from 4.290% yesterday. The two-year slips to 3.766% from 3.778%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0904 ET - While there is high uncertainty on the direction for geopolitics, the recent rise in bond yields as a result of the Middle East war, seems disproportionate relative to energy price moves, Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Kay Haigh and Whitney Watson say in a note. This potentially is creating opportunities to add duration or maintain overweight positions, the co-CIOs and co-heads of fixed income and liquidity solutions say. They add that the Middle East conflict's duration and intensity remain the major factors determining the path of near-term monetary policy. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0857 ET - Subtle but significant changes to the Fed's policy statement could be on the way after the conclusion of the April meeting next week, Derek Tang of Monetary Policy Analytics suggests. With many estimates of breakeven job creation close to zero, Tang thinks the Fed may choose to deemphasize payrolls by removing any reference to the rate of job gains and focusing on unemployment instead. More importantly, Tang thinks that the Fed may hint it is less certain that its next move will be another rate cut. He thinks the previous statement's reference to "additional adjustments" to the fed funds rate may change to "any adjustment" to the rate, signaling that the next rate move may not be in the same direction as December's cut. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

0827 ET - Stablecoins could help mitigate the threat of de-dollarization, or reduced use of the dollar globally, if they become mainstream, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says. Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency pegged to another asset, including traditional currencies. The dollar currently dominates the market for stablecoins as many coins are pegged to the U.S. currency. "If the dollar continues to dominate that and we see an expansion in terms of stablecoin usage, that certainly would be a counterargument to de-dollarization," he says. Stablecoin demand has more potential to rise in countries that are contending with historically high inflation and currency depreciation, he says. There is some evidence of this in emerging markets, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0812 ET - The Turkish lira remains weaker against the dollar, barely reacting after Turkey's central bank left interest rates at 37%. Most market participants expected no change in rates, although some were expecting a rate rise, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. The central bank said energy prices remain elevated amid the Iran war and it is closely monitoring the effects of these developments on the inflation outlook. The dollar rises 0.1% to 44.9197 lira, little changed from levels before the decision. The lira remains heavily managed which can smooth volatility in the near term but doesn't resolve underlying imbalances, Ghose says. "The probability of a more abrupt currency adjustment will rise materially in the event of no monetary policy change." (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0809 ET - Bitcoin's recent recovery suggests it could be transitioning away from the prolonged weakness seen since the third quarter of 2025, LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger says. Crypto has started outperforming traditional assets, with bitcoin running ahead of the S&P 500 and gold over the past month as investors seek alternative assets, he says. Stability in macroeconomic conditions, alongside progress on institutional flows and regulatory clarity, would potentially support further gains, he says. However, the market will "still need to navigate headline risk from global geopolitics and shifts in broader risk appetite." Bitcoin could rise towards $90,000 if it sustains levels above $76,000, he says. Bitcoin rises more than 3% to an 11-week high of $78,394, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0716 ET - Even as U.K. inflation edges higher, the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% during the next rate decision on April 30, Hargreaves Lansdown's Emma Wall says in a note. U.K. annual headline inflation rose 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February. Investors price a 9% chance of a quarter-point BOE rate rise in April, LSEG data show. "Inflation is likely to remain elevated in April too, and markets are now pricing in one rate rise later this year, but our house view is that rates are held through the conflict," Wall says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0713 ET - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are slightly lower after a cease-fire in the Middle East was extended. However, moves are limited amid ongoing uncertainty about the conflict and the outlook for energy prices. "The extension of the current ceasefire by President Donald Trump has reduced the risk of immediate escalation but left the broader outlook uncertain," says DHF Capital's Bas Kooijman in a note. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy supply disruptions unresolved, which could continue to pose inflation and growth risks, he says. The two-year Treasury yield falls 1.1 basis point to 3.768%, whilethe 10-year yield is down 1.2 basis points at 4.280%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index is down 0.1% at 98.329. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0705 ET - Bank Indonesia's decision to hold rates is seen as a hawkish pause, Societe Generale economists say. They believe BI will keep the policy rate on hold for longer, leaving it at 4.75% until there is clearer evidence that the rupiah has stabilized sustainably and imported inflation risks from energy have diminished. A renewed oil spike, capital outflows or a sharper rupiah selloff could push the central bank to tighten monetary policy, they say. Meanwhile, relatively faster disinflation and calmer global markets could reopen the door for a late-year cut. Still, BI's language suggests a cut anytime soon is unlikely and will require convincing evidence of forex stability and dissipating oil risks. For now, the economists maintain their expectation of one 25 basis-point reduction before the year's end. (jihye.lee@wsj.com)

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260422005941:0/