ビットコインが10週間ぶりの高値を記録、ホルムズ海峡が再開通—市場動向

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1003 ET - Bitcoin rises to another 10-week high after Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" to commercial vessels following a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. President Trump welcomed the move on his Truth Social but said a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place until a peace deal is reached. "This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated," he said. Earlier, Iran said it wouldn't accept any further temporary cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran and instead wants the conflict to "end here once and for all." Bitcoin rises 2.8% to a high of $77,532, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0956 ET - Investors continue to bet on almost two full interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year. This is despite oil prices dropping sharply after Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on X that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire. If normal maritime traffic returns, inflationary risks could decline but investors maintain caution for now. Money markets price in 45 basis points of rate hikes for 2026, according to LSEG data, slightly less than about 50 basis points of hikes previously. Money markets expect the ECB to stay on hold at the April 30 policy meeting. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0954 ET - Shares in European banks gain after Iran foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" to commercial vessels. The Stoxx 600 banking subindex is up 2.4% in afternoon trade on Friday, compared with a 1.4% increase for the broader index. As an economically sensitive sector, banks had lost ground in recent weeks as cautious investors weighed the risk that higher oil prices could force central banks to keep interest rates high, potentially slowing economic growth. "That's a massive shot in the arm for risk sentiment," says Saxo UK's Neil Wilson. The continent's largest banks trade in the green. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0953 ET - Another gauge of Canadian housing prices provides more evidence of softness. The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index fell in March for a fourth-straight month, by a sharp 1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The Teranet-National Bank index tracks prices in Canada's 11 biggest urban markets. National Bank economist Daren King says that prices in 55% of markets tracked fell by more than 10%. That share "remains very high by historical standards, especially given the current environment of more accommodative interest rates," King says. King says prices are likely to weaken further in the coming months, unless there is a positive development in US-Canada trade relations--such as more certainty about USMCA's future. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

0946 ET - The euro is likely to rise further against the dollar by year-end if the European Central Bank raises interest rates, ING analysts say in a note. While ING now expects just one ECB rate rise in June, it sees the Federal Reserve delivering two rate cuts later this year. This should encourage investors to hedge against the risk of a weaker dollar, they say. ING expects the euro to rise to $1.20 by year-end but sees the risk of a bigger appreciation if the ECB ends up delivering two rate rises and political uncertainty builds ahead of U.S. midterm elections in November, triggering more dollar weakness. The euro rises to a two-month high of $1.1848, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0935 ET - The dollar erases nearly all of its wartime gains as the Strait of Hormuz is declared open for commercial traffic and Wall Street grows confident an Iran peace deal is coming. ICE's DXY gauge falls 0.4% to 97.78, compared to 97.61 at close on February 27, just before the first U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran. The WSJ Dollar Index, down 0.4%, is also just above its pre-war level. Oil prices plummet more than 10%, easing inflation fears and supporting the prospect of interest rate cuts in the U.S. The greenback weakens 0.5% against the euro and the yen. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0934 ET - U.K. 2-year government bond yields fall to a month-low as inflation concerns ease after Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that "the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open," on his X account. Investors are optimistic that the energy supply will resume normal levels in the near term, calming nerves about the risk of energy-driven inflation. Two-year gilt yields fell to a one-month low of 4.091% following the announcement, Tradeweb data show. Ten-year gilt yields drop 9.5 basis points to last trade at 4.749%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0925 ET - Eurozone government bond yields fall sharply after Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on X that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire. Oil prices drop sharply as Iran's announcement adds to market hopes of a return to normal maritime traffic, enabling a resumption of energy transport from the Gulf region. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 6.5 basis points to 2.961%, the 10-year French OAT yield is down 8.8 basis points at 3.579%, and the 10-year Italian BTP yield drops 11.7 basis points at 3.678%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0918 ET - The dollar weakens as oil prices plunge on reports that Iran is declaring the Strait of Hormuz is now open. President Trump refers to the announcement on social media. The news comes amid growing hopes of a peace deal. Treasury yields also fall as the prospect of cheaper energy eases fears of lasting inflation and boosts expectations of Fed cuts. ICE's DXY index falls 0.6% and the WSJ Dollar Index is down 0.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.23%, down from around 4.30% before the news. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0853 ET - The slump in Canadian housing is more evidence that talk of interest-rate increases later this year is misplaced, says Nwal Anwar, analyst at Rosenberg Research. Canadian existing-home sales fell for a fifth straight month in March, and are down 2.3% from a year ago. Anwar says the 275 basis points of rate relief over a roughly two-year period clearly didn't reignite the housing sector, underscoring weakness in the Canadian economy. Housing data are "one of the many reasons why we think concerns about Bank of Canada hikes are overstated," she says. The drop in housing prices should be reflected in the next few CPI reports, and that should ease BOC concerns about inflation, Anwar adds. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com)

0844 ET - Treasury yields slip as crude prices fall around 5% on expectations a U.S.-Iran peace deal. "If a deal is reached between the U.S. and Iran which now appears increasingly likely we would expect oil prices to move toward the mid-$70 range," Spartan's Peter Cardillo writes. The WSJ Dollar Index slips 0.2%. There are no major indicators on tap today. Investors await Kevin Warsh's nomination hearing in the Senate scheduled for next week as Chair Powell's succession remains up in the air. The 10-year declines to 4.284% from 4.308% yesterday. The two-year is at 3.752%, down from 3.777%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0829 ET - The Middle East war has led to increased interest rate volatility as high energy prices raise inflation risk and the possibility of central bank interest rate rises, Validus Risk Management's Marc Cogliatti says in a note. Since the start of the conflict, investors have priced out interest-rate cuts by major central banks and instead price in interest-rate rises in the coming months. The sharp change in interest-rate expectations has led to high volatility in rates. "Interest rate volatility will impact forex hedging costs as differentials widen (or narrow)," he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260417004071:0/