Fedのオペレーションが、第4四半期に利益を上げた—市場の動向

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1023 ET - The Fed has reported losses for three straight years, because the interest it earns from its securities portfolio has trailed the interest it pays on banks' reserve balances. But in the 4Q of 2025, at least, the Fed recorded a profit of about $2 billion as its financial arithmetic improves. Lower interest rates--which means smaller interest payments on banks' deposits--could help the Fed's operating result improve further from here. Profitability isn't an explicit Fed goal. In normal times, the Fed sends any profits to the Treasury. After the recent losses, however, the Fed will first pay itself back for past shortfalls, and then resume remitting profits to the Treasury once the total shortfall has been erased. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

1022 ET - Pending home sales fell 1% year over year, Redfin says. That's the biggest decline in a month. On the selling side, new listings inched up 0.3% year over year. House hunters are wary partly because of rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. The weekly average mortgage rate has hit a three-month high of 6.22%. The daily average mortgage rate rose as high as 6.55% on Tuesday. Rising mortgage rates, along with a 1.8% year-over-year increase in U.S. home-sale prices, have driven the median monthly housing payment to $2,695--the highest level since June. The median payment is down 1.5% compared to a year ago. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

0944 ET - The U.S. Federal Reserve could face a dilemma with its dual mandate regarding employment and inflation: Should it raise interest rates to combat inflation or lower them to support growth and employment?, says Ofi Invest Asset Management's Benjamin Louvet in a note. "Since an interest rate hike cannot cushion the supply shock without harming growth, it seems unlikely that the Fed will opt for a rate increase," the head of commodities says. Moreover, declining revenues from the Gulf states, which are major buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, could also weaken U.S. debt financing and force the Fed to lower interest rates or even resume bond purchases to support the economy, Louvet says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0939 ET - The South African rand pares losses against the dollar after the country's central bank left interest rates at 6.75%, as expected, and signalled the chance of pivoting towards rate rises. South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the central bank considered a scenario where the Iran war lasts another two months or so and a more extreme scenario where the conflict lasts over a year. "Both call for higher interest rates this year, with one hike in the first scenario and several more in the other," he said. The dollar rises 0.5% to 17.0101 rand, compared to 17.0646 before the decision. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0918 ET - The gap between two-year gilt yields and 30-year gilt yields has narrowed since the start of the Middle East war. Markets have raised their expectations of the Bank of England raising interest rates in the coming months, leading to a sharper rise in short-dated gilt yields compared to their long-dated counterparts. The two-year gilt yield and thirty-year gilt-yield spread has narrowed to last trade at 102 basis points, down from 151bps prior to the Middle East war, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0915 ET - The Norwegian krone could strengthen further if the Norges Bank raises interest rates and oil prices remain elevated, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The Norges Bank held rates at 4% Thursday but said it could lift rates at upcoming meetings as the outlook indicates higher inflation than previously expected. The krone would benefit if oil prices ease enough to boost risk sentiment but remain sufficiently high to keep commodity currencies in demand and rate rises on the table, Pesole says. ING expects a rate rise in May. The euro falls 0.7% to 11.1171 krone and ING sees it reaching 10.80 krone in the second quarter with a risk ofbigger declines if Norway-eurozone rate expectations widen.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0906 ET - All of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's 32 member countries met their commitment to spend at least 2% of their gross domestic product on defense for the first time last year, according to the alliance's annual report published Thursday. European NATO members and Canada spent $574 billion on defense in 2025, up 20% on year in real terms, the report states. The Czech Republic and Hungary were the only NATO members that cut defense spending in real terms compared to 2024. The U.S. remains NATO's biggest financial contributor, accounting for 52% of the allies' combined GDP and about 60% of the alliance's nominal defense spending, the report adds. In 2025, NATO members agreed on a new defense investment target of 5% of GDP, of which 3.5% would fund core defense. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)

0905 ET - The U.K. remains highly vulnerable to global energy shocks, says Joe Nellis at MHA. The OECD warned that the country could be the hardest hit economy in the G-20 from rising energy prices following the outbreak of war in Iran. The most pressing risk will be to growth as consumers and businesses cut back on spending, while inflation is also set to rise. "This places the Bank of England in a difficult position--support growth and risk fuelling inflation, or keep interest rates higher for longer and deepen the slowdown," Nellis says. It also threatens the U.K.'s fiscal stability, with already-high borrowing and bond yields leaving little scope for flexibility, he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0859 ET - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts that U.K. annual headline inflation will climb to 4% this year due to high energy prices. The latest data for February showed U.K. annual headline CPI inflation at 3.0%. The Middle East war has led to an energy supply shock and high oil prices, raising inflation risk. "There's a risk that a resolution could take months rather than weeks unless anything changes soon, and we can expect energy prices to remain structurally higher for some time even after that," Quilter's Lindsay James says in a note. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0834 ET - The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has managed to increase ammunition production six-fold compared with a couple of years ago but there's more to do, says Mark Rutte, secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. "The industrial defense base at the moment is simply not producing enough and we are not fast enough in implementing innovation," he says, speaking at a press conference in Brussels. "We are getting better but we have to do more." There are more European defense companies investing in the U.S. and vice-versa, he adds. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)

0858 ET - Bitcoin stays weaker as hopes for a swift resolution to the Iran war fade. Pakistan said the U.S. and Iran were engaged in indirect talks and Tehran was privately considering Washington's proposal to end the conflict. However, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had no intention of negotiating. President Trump said in a social media post that Iran needed to get serious about talks before it was too late. Investors are caught between the risk of further escalation and expectations that neither side ultimately wants to push the conflict to its most destructive outcome, Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says in a note. "The result is heightened volatility without a clear directional trend." Bitcoin falls 2.3% to $69.327, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0850 ET - The European credit sector faces growing risks including the energy supply shock due to the Middle East war, trade disputes, AI disruption, and political uncertainty, analysts at S&P Global Ratings say in a note. "Supply chain disruptions could increase inflation, tighten credit conditions, and impair earnings, particularly for energy-intensive industries," they say. Lower-rated corporate issuers and companies in sectors such as chemicals and autos are more exposed to the risks, the analysts say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260326006956:0/