ビットコイン、高リスクの変動：12万ドルという予測が、6万ドルから7万ドルの範囲での蓄積の状況と交差する

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Bitcoin March outlook is separating the bulls from the bears. After grinding through a sustained high-stakes consolidation phase that bottomed at $62,900 last week, Bitcoin is back trading above $66,000 at the time of writing.

While price action feels heavy following the 22% decline from this time last year, macro analysts are eyeing a violent repricing event that could send the asset vertical before the end of the month. Key Takeaways:

Macro economist Henrik Zeberg projects a primary scenario where Bitcoin rallies to $110,000–$120,000 in March, fueled by ETF inflows and risk-on sentiment.
A volatility flush to $62,920 triggered a massive short squeeze, resetting funding rates and clearing over-leveraged positions.
On-chain metrics place the current $60,000–$70K action in a historic accumulation band, despite fear persisting in the market.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Point to $110K–$120K: But Can It Last?

Despite the recent chop, the institutional thesis remains aggressively bullish. Macro economist Henrik Zeberg has doubled down on a Bitcoin price prediction that sees the asset nearly doubling within weeks.

Portfolio Target Analysis – March 2026 Fundamental Perspectives to the Outlook and Targets of the Portfolio.My Core HypothesisBitcoin rallies to $110–120K in the primary scenario – fueled by Risk-On Fever, ETF inflows, and continued institutional adoption. There is a…— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg)

On March 1, Zeberg outlined a “primary scenario” targeting $110,000 to $120,000, representing an 80% upside from the recent lows around $66,000.

Bitcoin rallies to $110–120K in the primary scenario – fueled by Risk-On Fever, ETF inflows, and continued institutional adoption.

— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg)

Zeberg attributes this potential surge to “Risk-On Fever” and relentless ETF demand. He even assigns a 25% probability to an overshoot scenario reaching $140,000 to $150,000.

This aligns with data from Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, who argue that the market is witnessing the “” in history due to banking adoption and pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration.

Institutional infrastructure is rapidly catching up to these forecasts. For instance, Morgan Stanley applying for a national trust charter to hold clients’ crypto signals that major players are positioning for a long-term hold, reducing the floating supply available on exchanges.

If these inflows sustain their current pace, the supply shock could validate Zeberg’s $120,000 target sooner than the derivatives market expects.

Discover: The best new crypto on the marketBitcoin $62.9K Short Squeeze, and Why March is Critical

The path to these highs, however, is being paved with volatility. Bitcoin dropped to $62,920 early last week on Feb 24. The dip punctured the rising support line, trapping late bears who piled in expecting a crash to $50,000.

What followed was a textbook . As price reclaimed $65,000, short positions were forced to cover, driving the asset back up above $69,000 the following day.

This flush mirrors the market dynamics seen recently, where Bitcoin rebounded after sudden geopolitical shocks erased $5K in 24 hours, proving the market’s resilience at these levels.

The RSI on the daily chart has reset from overbought territory to a neutral 41, suggesting the market has room to run if buying pressure returns.Is Bitcoin’s March to $120k Possible?

CoinMarketCap’s is currently set to “Extreme Fear” (15/100), a classic contrarian signal that often marks local bottoms.

The divergence is clear: weak hands are selling the dip, while smart money treats the $60K floor as a gift. Key historic patterns suggest that post-halving corrections often end with this type of grinding consolidation before the markup phase resumes.

The market is now coiled between two critical levels. The immediate resistance sits at $72,000. A clean break above this level confirms the end of the correction and opens the door to Zeberg’s $110,000 target.

However, risks remain. If Bitcoin fails to hold the $60,000 support, the structure weakens significantly. Bearish voices like Jimmy Wales have famously argued against the asset’s long-term viability, and warnings that BTC could collapse below $10k should investors panic still circulate during downturns, though they look increasingly disconnected from the current institutional reality.

Still, the odds may yet favor the bulls. The combination of political tailwinds from the expected passing of CLARITY, ETF inflows, and a completed leverage flush sets the stage for a march higher.

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source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cryptonews:339c7814e094b:0-bitcoin-high-stakes-march-120k-forecasts-meet-the-60k-70k-accumulation-grind/