ビットコインの価格が安定していることは、売り圧力が弱まっている兆候であり、市場の底堅さを示唆している、とK33が分析しています

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Bitcoin's (BTC) prolonged consolidation could signal a shift in market structure, with easing selling pressure pointing to a potential bottom, according to research and brokerage firm K33.

In a new report, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde noted that bitcoin has traded largely sideways between $60,000 and $75,000 in recent weeks, a range that has persisted as both exchange-traded product flows and long-term holder behavior stabilize. He described this type of price action as "often associated with market bottoms," suggesting bitcoin may be attractively priced for medium- to long-term investors around the low $70,000 level.

Bitcoin ETF flows have turned mildly positive since late February, indicating that the heavy distribution phase since October's all-time highs may be ending, according to Lunde. Earlier outflows were driven by profit-taking when bitcoin fell below investors' cost basis, creating a feedback loop of supply, but as prices declined, incentives to sell weakened and demand began to stabilize, he said.

Market enters consolidation phase

A similar dynamic is playing out among long-term holders, according to K33. Supply held for more than six months has begun to rise again after declining sharply in late 2025, Lunde said, noting that with bitcoin trading below $100,000, fewer investors are inclined to exit positions, helping anchor prices within the current range.

Despite this stabilization, broader market conditions remain uncertain. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and rising oil prices have driven volatility across financial markets, while a hawkish Federal Reserve stance has reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. These factors have weighed on risk appetite and limited fresh inflows into crypto markets, per the report.

Positioning data reinforces the cautious tone. Open interest in bitcoin perpetual swaps has drifted toward yearly lows, and funding rates remain persistently negative, signaling weak demand for long exposure, Lunde said. Institutional traders have also stayed largely on the sidelines, with CME futures open interest flat and limited conviction to extend positions further out the curve, he added.

Even so, Lunde characterizes the current environment as constructive. The combination of reduced selling pressure, stabilized ETF flows, and range-bound price action suggests the market may be transitioning away from a distribution phase and toward a potential bottoming process, even as macro uncertainty continues to cap upside in the near term, he said.

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